Weighted value and coverage

The weighted value of a deal is its size times its win chance. A deal marked at 60% that survival arithmetic puts at 38% is worth less than the mark suggests.

Illustration: say a covered seat approves at 0.85 and an uncovered seat at 0.5. With five seats, covering none gives 0.031 and covering all gives 0.444, about fourteen times better. Each seat you cover multiplies the deal by 1.7. Covered means you have evidence about the seat, not just a meeting. Real numbers come from your own past deals.